Mallorca property market report - June 2009

Inevitably the focus of conversation about the property market in Mallorca remains on the effects of the recession.

How bad is it? Are there good deals or property bargains to be had? Will prices go any lower? Has the recession bottomed out?

Our perspective on these things remains largely unchanged, although the global markets have moved on in the last two months and we are seeing some early signs of improvements that could signal the recession is starting to ease. Here are our more detail thoughts to bring our perspective and recommendations up-to-date.

Has the recession bottomed out?

Maybe, but probably not quite yet, but there does seem to be a wide consensus that the rate of slowdown is decelerating. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has suggested that there are "tentative signs of, at least, a pause in the economic slowdown" in some countries - namely the UK, France, Italy, and China. Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, said recently that there has been a "slowing down in the decrease in GDP" and went on to note that certain countries were already reporting a pick-up.

There are also signs that housing market activity in the UK is picking up slightly, with mortgage approvals up slightly and surveyors reporting increased interest in house purchases. World stock markets too have recovered significantly from their low points in March.

All of this is good news, but our view remains largely unchanged as regards the overall state of the world economy and also the property market in Mallorca. That is, that there is indeed a slowdown in the rate of fall of the key economic indicators in some countries. And this could be a sign that the recession is gradually finding a its lowest point. We do not feel however that there will be a quick or significant rebound except for perhaps in the stock markets driven by traders who appear in the main to be flying in the face of what continues to be pretty dire economic and company performance data.

Furthermore some of the key actual economic indicators, and things the UK and other counties still have to contend with, look far from cheery. Unemployment could reach 9% in the UK, 10% in the US and 20% in Spain by the end of the year. This will undoubtedly have a negative effect on consumption and the housing market in these countries.

Added to this, these signals of recovery are not yet apparent in a small number of the biggest economies in the world such as the US, Germany and Japan. In many developing countries too conditions are still getting worse.

With all this in mind, we think it far too early to be heralding the end of the recession, or even that it has reached its ultimate low. It may be that we will see a modest return to growth in some countries in 2010, but it will take longer, possibly much longer, to return to the levels of activity seen prior to 2007.

On top of this there are still great concerns over the financial health of some of the worlds biggest economies. And the overall effects of the massive amounts of money pumped in to stimulate these economies is not yet clear. The IMF has warned that there could still be another $3 trillion in losses for the financial sector as a whole before the crisis is over.

The prognosis for the Mallorca property market

This remain pretty much unchanged from the point-of-view outlined in our recent article "There are Signs of Life in the Mallorca Property Market - Are They “Green Shoots” of Recovery?"

As above, there are plenty of solid reasons to believe there will be no significant uplift in property markets in any country, even the strongest such as mallorca, during the course of this year and most likely the first half of 2010 too.

On top of the global macro economic considerations there are factors specific to the Spanish property market that also put pressure on prices across the region. These are highlighted in the article mentioned above.

However, it is also very clear that activity has picked up in the Mallorca property market and that sales are being made, albeit at a relatively low level. There are a number of more positive factors that are contributing to this.

Euro interest rates are lower now than they have even been

The latest European Central Bank’s interest rate cut to 1.00% is the lowest level since the single currency’s creation. It is possible that the rate will be cut still further later in the year. Whilst it is likely that not all of this will be passed on to lenders, any lowering of consumer rates is positive and will help stimulate the markets to some extent.

In Mallorca we are seeing buyers are taking 50% loans so they have a hedge against any further significant currency fluctuations. Braver investors are seeking higher percentage Euro loans on the basis that Sterling will improve against the Euro and therefore, paying off the loan and converting the bulk of their Sterling at a later date will be to their advantage.

Reflecting this there was a small increase in the number of new mortgages granted in March although the number is still significantly down on last year.

There are some good deals to be had in Mallorca at present

This is the most important factor. Buyers in the Mallorca property market at present tend to be either professional investors, or private individuals who realise a) that there are some very good deals to be had in the current market and, b) that to delay looking for a property in the hope that conditions will move even more in their favour might mean missing out on a great opportunity that is available in the market right now.

We have written several times on this subject and you can read previous articles that go into the subject in more detail via the "Related information" links opposite.

Conclusion and summary

Overall our prediction remains that average property prices in Mallorca will drop further through to the end of this year, possibly continuing into the first half of 2010. We do not however think this drop will be as high as in other parts of Spain (predicted to be 10% overall this year and 12% next year by analysts at BBVA - one of Spain's leading banks). The fact that there are active buyers in the market in Mallorca sets the region apart from most. And there are plenty of other solid reasons to set Mallorca apart from other parts of mainland Spain, the other Spanish islands, and most other international property markets too (see the "Green shoots" article referenced above).

But once again the over-riding observation is to not rely too much on market data and statistical analyses. This is because of the considerable variance in actual selling prices above and below the average prices in this unusual market environment. The reason for this is that the seller's circumstance is a more powerful factor than in a "normal" market environment and this is not directly related to the usual determinants of the value of a property.

There are, therefore, some exceptional deals being done at price levels that are unlikely to be improved upon regardless of where average prices go to.